Patrick Chan, Skate Canada, and new jump rules.
So, Grand Prix season is nearly over and the most talked about thing this season (besides maybe Mao-chan) has probably been Patrick Chan's... generous scores. I know I was really frustrated and enraged by the dissonance between his performance quality/execution and corresponding scores. I was in enough watch posts to know that other people were also annoyed watching him place over skaters who performed relatively clean programs.

For those of you who don't follow him: Tony Wheeler did a re-scoring experiment for this year's Skate Canada to see how the new rule about jumps affected Chan's scores. He followed up by doing the same for Oda and Rippon. The difference is kind of striking.

The 'Patrick Chan System': How Much is the New Scoring Method Really Helping?
We all should know the story by now. Following last season, there were plenty of figure skating fans who felt that risking difficult jumps (Quads for the men and Asada's triple Axel, for example) were too much of a risk, as skaters would often be down-graded for their efforts and they'd end up losing even more points than doing a simple triple toe or double Axel would earn them. So, what did the ISU do? They came up with a re-worked Code of Points (or IJS), one that increased the value of the more difficult jumps, and also decreased the negative grade of execution scores, so the penalty for taking risks wouldn't be as harsh. They also implemented an under-rotation penalty, one that docked some points from the base value of the jumps-- but not nearly the severeness of the full downgrade that they'd previously incur.

Everyone that was complaining before about skating taking steps backwards last year should now be happy, right? Not exactly. We have Patrick Chan falling all over the place in his Grand Prix events and still managing to score among the top skaters. We also have the "Mao Asada rule" (as many seemed to think the triple Axel changes were only to benefit her) not even playing a part yet this year as Asada has had extreme difficulties while changing her jumping technique.

Back to Chan. I thought it would be interesting to compare his scores from Skate Canada this season under the system used last year, to see if he really is getting plenty of help from the re-worked system.

First, the short program from Skate Canada. Remember, this year there is one less element in the program, as a second step sequence has been dropped. Another aspect to remember is that the GOE for the triples and quads have changed a bit. The scores have been factored to reflect the old system (for example, a +1 on a 3toe now earns 0.7 GOE, compared to 1.0 last season). Let's see how he scores.

The elements are not in table form (sorry), but they are listed by their code, their base value, their GOE, and then the total points earned for the element.

4T 9.80 -4.80 GOE = 5.00 (fall)
3A 8.20 -4.20 GOE = 4.00 (fall)
CCoSp4 3.50 +1.00 GOE = 4.50
3F+3T 9.50 +1.57 GOE = 11.07
FSSp4 3.00 +0.86 GOE = 3.86
CCSp3 2.60 +0.57 GOE = 3.17
SlSt2 2.30 -0.60 GOE = 1.70 (fall)

Total Element Score = 33.30 (compared to his actual score, 36.73)
Program Component Score = 39.47
Deductions = -3.00

Total Segment Score = 69.77 (compared to his actual score, 73.20)

Now, for the free skate. Two more changes in the system are reflected and factored here. The 1/2 loop in between two jumps is now scored as a single loop, and counted as part of a skaters three-jump combination. Last year, the 1/2 loop was not worth any credit, and the total jump sequence was started at 80% of its base value points. Second, the second footwork sequence in the free skate is now scored on a fixed start value (2.0). Last year, Chan received a level 4 for his second footwork sequence at Worlds (with the same program), so I have used the GOE scored there as a reference here.

4T 9.80 +2.00 GOE = 11.80
3A 8.20 -4.20 GOE = 4.00 (fall)
3Lz 6.00 +0.43 GOE = 6.43
SlSt3 3.30 +1.00 GOE = 4.30
FSSp4 3.00 +0.79 GOE = 3.79
3A+2T* 10.45 +0.29 GOE = 10.74
3Lz+2S+Seq* 6.42 +0.43 GOE = 6.85
CSSp3 2.60 +0.57 GOE = 3.17
3F* 6.05 +0.43 GOE = 6.48
3Lo+3T<* 6.93 -1.00 GOE = 5.93
2A 3.85 +1.00 GOE = 4.85
SlSt4 3.90 +1.80 GOE = 5.70
CCoSp4 3.50 +0.79 GOE = 4.29

Total Element Score = 78.33 (compared to his actual score, 83.18)
Program Component Score = 84.14
Deductions = -1.00

Total Segment Score = 161.47 (compared to his actual score, 166.32)

Total Competition Score = 231.24 (compared to his actual score, 239.52)

A difference of 8.28 points.
And the follow-up...

The 'Patrick Chan System' Part Two: How Much Did the New Scoring Help Oda and Rippon?
My first post focused on Patrick Chan's programs at Skate Canada, as I scored them using the Code of Points from the 2009/2010 season. The end result was that he scored 8.28 points higher than he would have if the old system was still in place. I didn't think that seemed like too huge of a difference considering some of the more fine changes that were made, but then I scored Nobunari Oda and Adam Rippon's programs from the same competition to see if they also followed the trend..

If any of you want me to write out all of the exact numbers, let me know. However, I figure that most of you are just interested in the final totals so that is what I'm going to present. First, the silver medalist from Skate Canada, Nobu Oda.

Short Program

Total Element Score = 44.20 (compared to his actual score, 43.37)
Program Component Score = 38.00

Total Segment Score = 82.20 (compared to his actual score, 81.37)

So he LOST 0.83 with this new system. Continuing on..

Long Program

Total Element Score = 82.84 (compared to his actual score, 81.87)
Program Component Score = 74.28
Deductions = -1.00

Total Segment Score = 156.12 (compared to his actual score, 155.15)

Total Competition Score = 238.32 (compared to his actual score, 236.52)

So once again, he lost almost a point in the free skate with the new system, and he lost 1.80 points overall. Keep in mind that Patrick Chan was able to GAIN 8.28 points with the new system.

Here are Adam Rippon's scores.

Short Program

Total Element Score = 41.59 (compared to his actual score, 41.10)
Program Component Score = 36.43

Total Segment Score = 78.02 (compared to his actual score, 77.53)

See a trend here? Rippon also LOST 0.49 points under the new system.

Long Program

Total Element Score = 81.57 (compared to his actual score, 80.35)
Program Component Score = 75.16

Total Segment Score = 156.73 (compared to his actual score, 155.51)

Total Competition Score = 234.75 (compared to his actual score, 233.04)

Following a similar pattern to Oda, Rippon lost 1.71 points overall.

Remember that the second footwork sequences are all started on a 2.0 base value, but for purposes of this study, I've thrown in the level and GOE received at Worlds last season for Chan and Rippon, and the Grand Prix Final for Oda. If I would have kept that 2.0 and worked the GOE off of it, Oda and Rippon would have ended up with just about the same total scores in both systems.

So now the major question, where did Patrick Chan make up all of these points? This small study obviously suggests that errors are counted much less severely this year-- but are they now too small of a penalty?

For what it's worth, the final standings of Skate Canada scored under the 2009/2010 system would have looked like this:

1. Nobunari Oda 238.32 points
2. Adam Rippon 234.75 points
3. Patrick Chan 231.24 points